Market Analysis

Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 10/11/25

Monday 10 November

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.3%
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.4%
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.9% 2.9%
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.4%
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 2.8%
Durable Goods   0.2%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
CPI Year on Year (nsa) CPI Year on Year (nsa) Chart 3.0% 3.0%
CPI Month on Month (sa) CPI Month on Month (sa) Chart 0.3% 0.2%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -6.32Bln CA
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 2.8%
Consumer Sentiment Consumer Sentiment Chart -3.5% 12.8%

Tuesday 11 November

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Retail Sales (Office for National Stats) Retail Sales (Office for National Stats) Chart 2.0% 1.5%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.3%
Claimant Count Unemployment Change Claimant Count Unemployment Change Chart 25.8k 29.0k
Average Weekly Earnings 3 Month Year on Year Average Weekly Earnings 3 Month Year on Year Chart 5.0% 5.0% 4.8%
Unemployment Rate (ILO) Unemployment Rate (ILO) Chart 4.8% 4.9% 5.0%
ZEW Current Conditions ZEW Current Conditions Chart -80.0 -78.0 -78.7
ZEW Economic sentiment ZEW Economic sentiment Chart 39.3 41.0 38.5
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.4%
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.4%
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.9% 2.9%
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
CPI Year on Year (nsa) CPI Year on Year (nsa) Chart 3.0% 3.0%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
CPI Month on Month (sa) CPI Month on Month (sa) Chart 0.3% 0.2%
Durable Goods   0.2%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -6.32Bln CA
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 2.8%

Wednesday 12 November

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.3%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
CPI Final Year on Year CPI Final Year on Year Chart 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
Industrial Production Month on Month (sa) Industrial Production Month on Month (sa) Chart -2.4% 1.5% 2.8%
Industrial Production Year on Year (wda) Industrial Production Year on Year (wda) Chart -2.7% -0.5% 1.5%
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.4%
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.9% 2.9%
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.4%
CPI Month on Month (sa) CPI Month on Month (sa) Chart 0.3% 0.2%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
Durable Goods   0.2%
CPI Year on Year (nsa) CPI Year on Year (nsa) Chart 3.0% 3.0%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -6.32Bln CA
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 2.8%

Thursday 13 November

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 4.5% 4.4% 4.3%
ILO Unemployment Rate ILO Unemployment Rate Chart 7.5% 7.6% 7.7%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.4% -0.2% -2.0%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
Trade Balance Non-EU Trade Balance Non-EU Chart -8.294Bln GB -6.816Bln GB
Manufacturing Output Month on Month Manufacturing Output Month on Month Chart 0.7% -0.3% -1.7%
GDP Prelim Year on Year   1.4% 1.4% 1.3%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.3%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -21.183Bln GB -20.800Bln GB -18.883Bln GB
Industrial Production Year on Year Industrial Production Year on Year Chart -0.7% -1.2% -2.5%
Manufacturing Output Year on Year Manufacturing Output Year on Year Chart -0.8% -1.5% -2.2%
GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Industrial Production Year on Year Industrial Production Year on Year Chart 1.1% 2.1% 1.2%
Industrial Production Month on Month   -1.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.4%
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.9% 2.9%
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.4%
Durable Goods   0.2%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -6.32Bln CA
CPI Year on Year (nsa) CPI Year on Year (nsa) Chart 3.0% 3.0%
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
CPI Month on Month (sa) CPI Month on Month (sa) Chart 0.3% 0.2%
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   5.202Mln 1.960Mln 6.413Mln
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 2.8%

Friday 14 November

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Retail Sales Retail Sales Chart 3.0% 2.8% 2.9%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.3%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
CPI Final Year on Year CPI Final Year on Year Chart 0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
CPI Final Month on Month CPI Final Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart 0.172Bln EU -0.042Bln EU
GDP Flash estimate Year on Year   1.3% 1.3% 1.4%
GDP Flash Estimate Quarter on Quarter GDP Flash Estimate Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart 1.0Bln EU 19.4Bln EU
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.4%
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.4%
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.9% 2.9%
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
Durable Goods   0.2%
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
CPI Month on Month (sa) CPI Month on Month (sa) Chart 0.3% 0.2%
CPI Year on Year (nsa) CPI Year on Year (nsa) Chart 3.0% 3.0%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -6.32Bln CA
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 2.8%

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